Ipea revises upwards inflation forecast for 2023

In the institute’s new projection, released this Tuesday (28), in Rio de Janeiro, inflation measured by the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) would reach 5.6% in 2023, compared to a projection of 4.9% made in December.

The IPCA revision was due to the “less favorable performance of administered prices and services, especially those related to education”, according to Ipea.

The projection of the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) increased from 4.9% to 5.5%.

“The expectation is that 2023 will reflect what was observed in the first two months of 2023, with a continuous deceleration in the prices of free goods and services, combined with a more intense rise in administered prices”, informed Ipea.

Impacts

According to the institute, this year’s inflation should also have an impact on the increase in fuel prices, on the one hand, and the drop in the sale price of gasoline by Petrobras to distributors on the other, as well as the above-expected readjustment for health plans in the first two months. As a result, Ipea revised its projected inflation of monitored goods and services to 8.2%, compared to the 5.6% projected in December.

For free services, the institute highlights the influence of the readjustment of school fees above the estimate, which raised the inflation expectation for educational services from 5.7% to 8.5% in 2023. totals rose from 5.4% to 6%.

Foods

According to Ipea, there was “good behavior” in the variation of food prices in the first two months, which served as a counterpoint to other analyzed segments. Thus, the expected food inflation for the year fell from 5.2% to 4.5%.