ICEI points to confidence in 17 industry sectors in March 2023
According to the methodology used in the ICEI, values above 50 points indicate trust and below indicate distrust. The survey consulted 1,991 companies — 795 small, 704 medium and 492 large.
According to the ICEI, small companies recorded the biggest drop in confidence: 1.1, and stood at 48.5 points. Among medium and large companies, the decrease was 0.3 points. Medium-sized companies also showed a lack of confidence: 49.4 points. While the big ones show confidence, with an index of 51.7 points. According to the economic analysis manager at the CNI, Marcelo Azevedo, distrust is linked to a scenario of uncertainties.
“Uncertainty remains high, which prevents the entrepreneur from feeling secure enough for a consistent increase in confidence. In a scenario like this, it is natural for entrepreneurs to show diffuse assessments of current conditions and their expectations, resulting in this evolution of differentiated trust between sectors, ”he says.
In the breakdown by regions of Brazil, the ICEI indicates that only the South of the country registered an increase (0.9). Despite the growth, the index was 47.2 points, which shows a lack of confidence on the part of businessmen in the region. The North, Northeast and Midwest regions had a drop in the indicator, however they remain above the 50-point dividing line, which means that businessmen remain confident. In the Southeast, there was a decrease of 0.5 and the region registered 49.8 points, which indicates that there is no confidence and no lack of intense or generalized confidence.
For economist Hugo Garbe, the industrial entrepreneur’s confidence is fundamental for the process of job and income generation in Brazil. He defends the approval of a “profound” tax reform for the evolution of the Brazilian economy.
“When the entrepreneur feels confident, he is more likely to invest than usual, so this propensity to invest makes him open more job openings. In order to improve Brazilian industry, the confidence of Brazilian entrepreneurs and industrialists, it is first necessary to start with a deeper tax reform”, he points out.
Hugo Garbe points to the crisis between the government and the Central Bank as the main reason for the decline in confidence. He argues that it is necessary to stabilize the political scene so that businessmen can feel safer to invest.
“The decline in Brazilian businessmen’s confidence is first due to a belligerent political scenario, where we have the government in a crisis with the Central Bank, more focused on interest rates. It goes through uncertainty, which is very bad for the economy because the entrepreneur becomes myopic. He cannot see in the long run which is the best solution, whether he should invest or not”, he points out.
By Brasil 61
