Industrial production retreats in January in eight surveyed locations

The Regional Monthly Industrial Survey (PIM), carried out by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), recorded a drop of 0.2% in domestic industry in the accumulated 12 months through January. There was a decrease in industrial production of 0.3% in eight states in January, with the main negative results in Rio Grande do Sul (3.4%), São Paulo (3.1%) and Mato Grosso (2%). Rio de Janeiro (1%), Santa Catarina (1%), Pará (0.4%), Paraná (0.3%) and Bahia (0.2%) also had a decrease.

In the opposite direction, Espírito Santo and Pernambuco registered increases of 18.6% and 17.3%, respectively, the highest in the month. The other positive changes came from Goiás (2.5%), Amazonas (2.4%), Ceará (1.5%) and Minas Gerais (0.6%).

The drop in industrial production in São Paulo occurred after the 0.8% drop in the previous month and resulted in a 3.9% retraction in the state’s industry in these two months. For the research analyst, Bernardo Almeida, the performance of the industry in São Paulo, in comparison with December, had the greatest influence on the national result and was impacted by the oil derivatives and vehicle sectors.

“We can observe that, in the month of January, the automobile industry usually takes collective vacations, and with that, there is a drop in production. There is also a certain amount of caution in the sector’s production, since the shortage of inputs and the rise in raw materials have been impacting the pace of production”, explains the IBGE.

The survey also showed that the decline in January in Rio Grande do Sul, related to the oil derivatives sector, eliminated the gain of 1.9% recorded in the previous month. But, according to the analyst, it was not the only impact. The tobacco products sector also exerted a negative influence on the industry in Rio Grande do Sul. “In addition to being the biggest drop among the locations investigated by the survey, the negative result of production in Rio Grande do Sul was the second with the greatest influence on the national index”, says the IBGE.

In Mato Grosso, the fall interrupted two consecutive months of expansion, after accumulating a gain of 9.3% in the period. “In that state, there was a drop in food production and, secondarily, there was also a negative impact on the beverage sector,” said Bernardo Almeida.

Accumulated

Despite the 0.2% drop in industry in the accumulated 12 months, nine states surveyed showed better performances compared to the December 2022 indices. Among them, the main gains were in Ceará, from a fall of 4.9% to a fall of 2.9%; in Pará from minus 9.1% to minus 7.5%), in Minas Gerais (from -1.3% to 0.1%) and in Amazonas (from 3.8% to 5.1%). The biggest losses were in Mato Grosso (from 19.4% to 13.7%), in Espírito Santo (from -8.4% to -9.7%) and in Goiás (from 1.4% to 0. 4%).

Updates

The IBGE informed that the publication of the January survey is the first after the updates in the sample selection of companies and local units and in the list of investigated products. There were also methodological changes, which seek to keep up with the economic changes in society. In addition, three new locations were included among those surveyed, Rio Grande do Norte, Maranhão and Mato Grosso do Sul. The inclusion is because these states reach 0.5% of the value of industrial transformation (VTI), according to the Annual Industrial Survey (PIA).

Analyst Bernardo Almeida said that, at this first moment, there are only results for the three new locations in the monthly interannual indicator, because it is necessary to have a larger series to produce more accurate and robust data, which will allow for the dissemination of the other indicators.

“For the 12-month accumulated indicator, for example, it is still not possible to disclose it due to its own methodology, due to the fact that the historical series of these locations are very recent”, he explained.

PIM Regional

According to the IBGE, since the 1970s, research has produced short-term indicators related to the behavior of the real output of extractive and manufacturing industries. Monthly, it reveals indices for 17 states whose share is at least 0.5% in the total value of national industrial transformation, and also for the Northeast as a whole. The locations surveyed are Amazonas, Pará, Maranhão, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás and Northeast Region, which grew by 6.1%.