Grain production should increase by 15% in the 2022/23 season

This Thursday (13th), the agency released, in Brasília, the 7th Grain Harvest Survey, the moment in which producers enter the final phase of harvesting first-crop crops. Regarding the planted area, Conab expects growth of 3.3%, with the incorporation of 2.5 million hectares, reaching 77 million hectares used.

“The good performance is explained not only by the increase in area, but also by the improvement in the productivity of crops such as soy, corn, cotton, sunflower, castor bean and sorghum. However, the consolidated result still depends on climate behavior, a preponderant factor for the development of second and third harvest crops”, explained Conab.

Soy is still the product with the highest volume harvested in the country, with an estimated production of 153.6 million tons. According to the company, with harvest progress of 78.2%, good productivity in the crops continues to be confirmed and is estimated at 3,527 kilos per hectare.

Corn

For corn, Conab also points to an increase in both area and production. The cereal is cultivated in around 21.97 million hectares across the country, an increase of 1.8%, with an increase in the area sown in the second harvest and a reduction in the first. The total grain harvest is estimated at 124.88 million tons, influenced by the increase in production by 8.8% in the first harvest and 11% in the second, reaching 27.24 million tons and 95.32 million tons, respectively.

“Another product showing growth is sorghum, influenced by the loss of the ideal maize planting window in some producing regions and because it is a product that is more resistant to drought”, explained Conab. Grain production may exceed 3.7 million tons in this harvest.

As for rice, production fell and is estimated at 9.94 million tons. “The lower volume produced is explained by the drop in the area destined to the product, combined with the adverse weather conditions recorded in the development of the crop, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, the largest producer of the grain”, said the company.

There was also a decrease in the total area planted with beans, estimated at 2.76 million hectares. Adding the three harvests, grain production should be 2.95 million tons.

Business

In this survey, there was an increase in soy export projections for the 2022/23 harvest, which should reach 94.35 million tons. Likewise, Conab also changed the internal consumption calculations for soy oil, which increased from 9.15 million tons to 8.29 million tons.

According to the agency, the reductions are explained by the lower domestic demand after the decision of the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) to increase the percentage of biodiesel or diesel from 10% to 12%, and not to 15% as used in previous estimates.

With the fall, expectations for oil exports rose to 2.6 million tons. “The increase is motivated by the greater sale of the product to the foreign market in the first quarter of 2023, with an increase of 42.74% when compared to the same period last year. This increase is motivated by the failure of the oilseed crop in Argentina. The smaller harvest by Argentine farmers should also influence shipments of soybean meal to the foreign market, which could reach 20.74 million tons”, explained Conab.

Grain harvest bulletins are available at site from Conab.