Economic activity stagnated in January

Economic activity was stagnant in January, compared to December 2022, in the seasonally adjusted series. This is what the GDP-FGV Monitor points out, an indicator of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, sum of goods and services produced in the country) released this Wednesday (19) by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV/Ibre) .

Compared to January last year, economic growth was 4.1%. And in the quarterly analysis, the growth was 2.2% in the moving quarter, ended in January, in relation to the same period of the previous year.

The research coordinator, Juliana Trece, explains that the stagnation verified in January results from a combination of factors, such as the retraction of the industry, the stagnation of the services sector and the growth verified only in agriculture. In her view, the result points to the trend for the year.

“This configuration already shows what should be expected in 2023, considering that the economic context is more challenging this year than what was observed in 2022. In a scenario of high interest rates and debt and the prospect of a global recession, consumption and investments tend to lose strength and hinder economic growth. The expectation of a record harvest in agriculture, in turn, shows that economic growth in the year should be greatly influenced by agriculture,” he said.

Components

The interannual quarterly series index shows that household consumption increased by 4.3% in the moving quarter ended in January, with an increase of 5.9% in the consumption of services and of 5.5% in that of non-durable products. According to the survey, the growth of services was spread across several segments and the non-durable segment was mainly responsible for the consumption of fuels and lubricants.
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF – investments) increased by 0.7%, influenced by construction and with a decline in the machinery and equipment sector.

In terms of exports, goods and services grew by 11.2%, with a decline only in intermediate goods. The survey highlights that more than half of the growth was responsible for mineral extraction products.

Imports of goods and services grew by 2.7% in the same period. There was growth both in capital goods and in consumer goods, but the highlight was the performance of imports in the services sector, mainly in information services and international travel.

The FGV Monitor estimate is that GDP in January was R$ 897.564 billion, in current values.

The investment rate in January was 15.4%, below the monthly average verified since the year 2000.