GDP-FGV monitor points to 2.5% growth in February

The Brazilian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.5% in economic activity in February compared to January, according to the GDP Monitor, released by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV). According to the indicator, GDP also increased by 2.7% compared to February 2022. According to Monitor FGV, in monetary terms, it is estimated that the accumulated GDP in the first two months of 2023 in current values , was R$ 1.829 trillion.

Economist Newton Marques assesses that growth is due to the performance of the investment rate. “Without the investment rate, it is not possible to increase the productive capacity of the economy.” The expert adds that taking advantage of the market’s idle capacity may also be another factor. Marques estimates that GDP growth for this year is between 1.5% and 1.8%.

“It monetarily measures everything that is produced in goods and services in a country. It becomes an important indicator of economic activity. It is formed by the primary sector, which is agriculture, by the secondary sector, which is the industrial sector, and by the tertiary sector, which is the service sector, which involves trade, transport, the public sector. So every time these sectors react positively to the various so-called macroeconomic conditions, that is, when you have a very high interest rate in relation to what is expected from inflation, this makes this economic growth difficult”, he highlights.

The president of the Joint Parliamentary Front for Competitive Brazil, Deputy Arnaldo Jardim (Cidadania-SP), says that, despite the indicator pointing to growth, the conditions are still insufficient for the economy to resume.

“I believe that the framework still has a credibility problem, it needs to be improved in Congress, on the other hand, it is clear that the issue of interest needs to be lower, today we are seeing a shortage of credit and signs of an increase in defaults and the tax reform still needs to be more consistently presented. Without these more structuring reforms, any growth is very punctual and cannot be interpreted as a consolidated trend”, he points out.

Monitor PIB-FGV

According to Juliana Trece, research coordinator, the strong growth of 2.5% of the economy in February was mainly due to agricultural activity. “Although industry and services have also grown in comparison with January, the expressive agricultural performance, justified mainly by the record soybean harvest and its high participation in the added value of agriculture, is the great highlight of the economy in the month”.

Doctor in economics Marcel Stanlei Monteiro believes that agribusiness is what will guarantee positive indicators for the coming months. “Agribusiness has been the main driver of economic growth over the last 10 years, of large volumes of exports, so, in my opinion, agriculture is in fact what is guaranteeing this positive signal and it is in fact the most constant thing, more reliable, which can be counted as a factor of proportion, growth and economic development.”

The GDP-FGV Monitor also points out that household consumption grew by 4.4% in the December-February quarter, due to services and non-durable products.

The indicator monthly estimates the Brazilian GDP in volume and value. It aims to provide society with a monthly GDP indicator, based on the same methodology as the National Accounts of the IBGE. The GDP-FGV Monitor is adjusted to the Quarterly National Accounts whenever there are methodological changes and every published quarter.