Farm will raise GDP growth forecast to 2.5% to 3%
“Our initial forecast was 2%, while the market expected less than 1%. But this scenario will be revised upwards. We are closer to the reality of growth of 2.5% to 3% this year”, said the secretary, who represented the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, at the installation of the Council’s Thematic Committee on Economic Affairs.
In May, the Farm had projected growth of 1.91% for the Brazilian economy this year. Last week, the Central Bank (BC) released a more optimistic estimate of 2% expansionin the June Inflation Report.
Harmonization
Unlike the BC estimate, the Economic Policy Secretariat still does not consider the growth of 1,9% do PIB in the first quarter, which surprised the experts. According to Mello, the drop in inflation and the probable reduction in interest rates in the second half will further boost growth.
“The conditions are in place for a cycle of harmonization between fiscal and monetary policy. We are expecting this cycle to consolidate as soon as possible”, declared Mello. The secretary cited projects being discussed in Congress, such as the new fiscal framework and the new legal framework for guarantees, as factors that will contribute to the improvement of the economy. “We are doing a very hard job on the fiscal side (on fiscal policy),” he said.
In Mello’s evaluation, these actions, together with the change in the inflation target system, from calendar year to continuous, informed by the National Monetary Council (CMN) last week, will help to harmonize fiscal and monetary policies, which will be reflected in the interest rate.
The secretary also mentioned the change in the inflation target system, from calendar year to continuous from 2025, approved last week by the National Monetary Council (CMN), as a factor that should contribute to the drop in interest rates in the near future.
Tax reform
Also present at the installation of the thematic commission, the extraordinary secretary for Tax Reform, Bernard Appy, said that the second stage of the reform, which provides for changes in the Income Tax, is being developed. Regarding the first phase, which reformulates taxation on consumption and faces resistance from some governors and mayors, Appy said he was confident in the approval of the report by Deputy Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB)
“The report has advanced a lot in the construction of a text that will allow its approval. This will be a week of final negotiations”, declared the extraordinary secretary. Appy pointed out that the first phase of the reform will benefit all states and almost all municipalities. Even with complaints from the service sector and supermarkets, he said that all sectors of the economy will benefit.
The secretary again emphasized that the reform will not increase the tax burden. “Obviously, the long-term ideal would even reduce the burden on consumption. Unfortunately, the country’s fiscal situation does not allow us to do this in the short term, but there is an absolute commitment from the government that there will be no such increase in the tax burden during the transition”, concluded Appy.
Congress
To speed up the processing of the tax reform, the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira, began analyzing the report in the plenary of the House this Monday. In his account on the social network Twitter, he informed that the theme will be one of the priorities of the deputies in the coming days.
In the concentrated effort promoted this week, the first project to be voted on will be the one that resumes the tie-breaking vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (Carf), which locks the agenda. Until Friday (7), the Chamber promotes a concentrated effort to vote on the reform, the Carf project and the new fiscal framework.
Foto de © Marcelo Camargo/Agência Brasil
Ministério da Fazenda,PIB,Economia
