Government indicates blocking of BRL 1.5 billion from the 2023 Budget

The possibility of an overflow in the federal spending ceiling made the government contingency (temporarily block) another R$ 1.5 billion from the General Budget of the Union for 2023, the Ministries of Planning and Finance announced a little while ago. The value appears in the Bimonthly Report for the Evaluation of Revenues and Expenses, a document that guides the execution of the Budget, published every two months.

In May, the economic team had set aside BRL 1.7 billion, which brings the total blocked this year to BRL 3.2 billion, an amount considered low compared to the total value of primary expenditures, estimated at BRL 1.948 trillion for this year. By the 31st, the government will need to edit a decree detailing the distribution of the new contingency among the ministries.

The block occurs because the estimate of primary expenses above the spending ceiling increased by the same amount (R$ 1.5 billion). Despite the Constitutional Transition Amendment, approved at the end of last year, in practice abolishing the fiscal targets for 2023, the spending ceiling will only cease to be valid when the new fiscal framework has been approved by Congress.

According to the assistant secretary of the National Treasury, Viviane Varga, revenue projections should improve in the next reports with the incorporation of measures approved, or to be approved by Congress, such as the project that changes the voting system in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (Carf) and the new fiscal framework.

primary deficit

The report also raised the primary deficit estimate by R$9.2 billion. The value will increase from R$ 136.2 billion to R$ 145.4 billion. The primary deficit represents the negative result of government accounts without public debt interest.

The Federal Budget Secretary of the Ministry of Planning, Paulo Bijos, pointed out that the predicted deficit remains below the target of BRL 238 billion for the Central Government – National Treasury, Social Security and Central Bank – established by the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) of 2023.

The main reason for reviewing the primary deficit was the drop in Social Security revenues, caused by lower growth in the wage bill as a result of high interest rates. At the beginning of the year, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, had estimated that the deficit would close 2023 around BRL 100 billion.

income and expenses

The forecast for the Union’s total primary revenues was reduced by R$800 million. Social Security had a drop of R$ 9.3 billion in collection. However, this decrease was partially offset by the increase in income from taxes associated with profit – Corporate Income Tax and Social Contribution on Net Income – and by judicial deposits from Caixa Econômica Federal.

Regarding mandatory expenses, which cannot be contingencyd, the estimate was increased by R$ 7.2 billion. Of this total, R$ 4.6 billion corresponds to transfers to states due to the agreement closed with the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to compensate for the drop in the Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) on fuels. There was also an increase of R$ 2.4 billion in the estimate with Social Security benefits and R$ 1.2 billion in subsidies and grants.

On the other hand, the forecast for spending on civil servants fell by R$ 1.9 billion due to the reduction in the payment of precatorios (expenses determined by a final court decision).