IFI: government needs more than R$40 billion for fiscal target

O Fiscal Monitoring Report (RAF) of November, released on the 21st, highlights the estimate that the government will need an additional effort of R$42.3 billion in the last two months of this year to eliminate the primary deficit in 2024. In the scenario in which the government seeks to limit the margin tolerance provided for in the new fiscal framework, the amount required would decrease to R$13.6 billion.

According to analysis by Marcus Pestana and Alexandre Andrade, executive director and director of Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI)respectively, among the measures that can help the government achieve fiscal goals are the reduced execution of parliamentary amendments to the Budget and a greater transfer of dividends and results from state-owned companies. Other measures to be adopted could be spending blocks and contingencies.

“pix” amendments

The release of parliamentary amendments is suspended due to a determination by Minister Flávio Dino, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), which conditions the payment of amendments to the existence of rules on traceability, transparency, social control and impediment.

Currently, the complementary bill is awaiting presidential sanction PLP 175/2024which regulates the rules for parliamentary amendments The text is an attempt to resolve the impasse over the payment of individual mandatory amendments, which include those known as “pix” amendments.

According to the IFI report, this year R$28.4 billion in amendments were paid until October, out of a total of R$45.3 billion – referring to the annual limit for payment of amendments.

According to the assessment contained in the report, this would result in a lack of R$ 16.9 billion that could be implemented in amendments, but which, to date, has been suspended due to the STF’s decision. The report then highlights that, taking into account that there are only two months left until the end of the year, meeting this year’s primary result target could become easier.