Agricultural GDP falls 0.9%: understand influences

Brazil’s agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 0.9% in the third quarter, compared to the second quarter. According to the Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil (CNA)the drop was expected for the period, due to the natural seasonality of the sector. Compared to the same quarter in 2023, Brazilian agriculture recorded a drop of 0.8%.

The year 2024 was marked by climatic adversities, such as drought and fires, with impacts on the agricultural sector. According to the CNA, the drop is directly associated with the drop in the grain harvest due to adverse weather conditions. In fact, from January to September, agriculture accumulated a decline of 3.5% in the year and 2.9% in the last four quarters.

In the third quarter, IBGE revised previous results, covering all quarters of 2023 and this year. According to the CNA, the 2024 revisions were broader, which resulted in positive adjustments for the sector in 2023 (from 15.1% to 16.3%) and negative adjustments for 2024 (from -3.3% to -5. 5% in the first quarter and from -2.9% to -3.3% in the second quarter, compared to the same period in 2023).

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Agro GDP has been falling

In the second quarter of 2024, agricultural GDP also fell, dropping 1.28%, accumulating a decline of 3.5% this year. During this period, the input segment influenced the decline in the sector. The data was calculated by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), from Esalq/USP, in partnership with CNA.

The drop for inputs was 2.68%: for the primary segment, -1.77%; for agro-industries, -0.62%; and for agriservices, -1.15%.

Year-to-date, the decline was 8.13% in the input sector. The result reflects the performance of fertilizers and soil improvers, pesticides, agricultural machinery and feed activities.

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