Unemployment reaches 8.4% between November and January and remains stable

Since 2015, it is the lowest rate for the November-January quarter. Compared to the same period of the previous year, there was a decrease of 2.9 percentage points. The usual real income rose 1.6% in the period.

The contingent of unemployed people in the quarter from November to January totaled 9 million people, a figure that repeats the figures for the period ended in October. However, in the annual comparison, it had less 3 million people, when there were 12 million in this condition. The data are from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad), released this Friday (17) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

For the coordinator of Pnad Contínua, Adriana Beringuy, the stable rate still reflects less demand for work. “This stability would be a repercussion of the reduction in the demand for work in the months of November and December 2022 over the beginning of 2023”, she informed in a text published in the site from IBGE.

Occupation

The IBGE estimated at 56.7% the occupation level referring to the percentage of employed persons in the population of working age. The index is similar to that registered in the same quarter of 2016. The number of employed persons was 98.6 million. The number means a drop of 1 million people compared to the quarter ended in October. “The rate just didn’t expand now because the pressure on the job market was stability. Depending on the occupation, the movement would be an increase in this indicator”, he informed in a virtual press conference to analyze the results.

The coordinator also said that the fall in the quarter, seen in occupation, occurred after a sequence of expansion in the number of workers in the moving quarters of 2022. “In the annual comparison, the number of employed persons continues to grow, with an increase of 3.4% . So, if on the side of unemployment there is stability, on the side of job creation the movement is already one of loss of occupation. Thus, we observe two panoramas: in a shorter-term analysis, a drop in job training is observed, while in the comparison with a year ago, the scenario is still one of occupation gains”, he added.

For Adriana Beringuy, these results explain the scenario seen at the end of the moving quarter from November to January. “This combined effect between the stability of the unemployed population and the retraction in the number of workers left the unemployment rate stable”, she observed.

The coordinator of Pnad Contínua added that some sectors influenced the quarter’s results, including agriculture and livestock. “It is possible to notice, in a more accentuated way, the loss of employment in agriculture, livestock, forest production, fishing and aquaculture, with a decrease of 272 thousand people, and public administration, education and health, with a loss of 342 thousand” , he said, noting that there were also negative variations in other activities. “Although not statistically significant, they point to a loss in the number of workers at the beginning of the year, at the turn of the fourth quarter of 2022 to the beginning of 2023”.

Performance

The PNAD for the moving quarter ended in January 2023 also showed that the usual real income increased by 1.6% in the period, reaching R$ 2,835, or 7.7% in the annual comparison. “A few quarters ago we observed important growth in workers’ income, with the period ended in January being the third observation”.

Among the sectors that helped in the growth in the quarter and in the comparison with the same period of the previous year is the lodging and food. “In terms of activities compared to the previous quarter, we highlight accommodation and food, which had an increase of 7%, and public administration, health and education, with an increase of 3.1%. Also noteworthy were domestic services, which expanded real income by 2.2%. In the annual comparison, all activities had a statistically significant gain in their income”, he reported.

discouraged

The contingent of discouraged people – those who are part of the potential workforce and would like to work but didn’t look for work because they thought they couldn’t – reached approximately 4 million in the quarter ending in January. The contingent is equivalent to a decrease of 5.3%, or 220 thousand people, compared to the quarter ended in October 2022.

The indicator also showed negative variation (-16.7%) in relation to the same period of the previous year. In that quarter there were 4.8 million disheartened people.

Continuous Pnad

According to the IBGE, the survey is the main instrument for monitoring the workforce in the country. In the quarterly sample in Brazil, 211 thousand households are surveyed. In all, the work involves around 2,000 interviewers in 26 states and the Federal District, integrated into the collection network of more than 500 institute agencies.

Due to the covid-19 pandemic, the IBGE adopted the collection of survey information by telephone as of March 17, 2020. In-person collection returned in July 2021. “It is possible to confirm the identity of the interviewer at site Responding to IBGE or through the Call Center (0800 721 8181), checking the registration number, the RG or CPF of the interviewer, data that may be requested by the informant”, informed the institution.