Agro exports break records in a scenario of falling commodity prices

One of the indicators that express the good moment experienced by the agricultural sector is the volume of commodities (primary products marketed in nature) exported abroad. In March, the result achieved was historic. Shipments reached US$ 16 billion, revenue US$ 1.6 billion higher than the same period in 2022, according to the Agribusiness Foreign Trade Bulletin, prepared by the Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil (CNA).

The entity’s document states that, among the Brazilian products sold to commercial partners, the one that stood out the most in the period was soy bran, which grew by 45.5%. In 2023, the estimate of the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) is that exports from the soy complex reach revenues of more than 67 billion dollars, which would represent yet another record result for the segment in the country.

The CNA International Relations advisor, Pedro Rodrigues, explains that the delay in the oilseed harvest contributed to the March result and that in the coming months, shipments should return to normal. For Rodrigues, even in the face of this positive scenario for agricultural exports, the global economic context has not favored commodity markets, which causes unpredictability for prices.

“We have a scenario of price volatility and that, to a certain extent, it is not easy to predict. What we also have is a scenario where agricultural inputs are positioned at expensive levels. So, despite the expectation of record soybean production for this crop, we have to remember that this was an expensive crop”, says Rodrigues.

Despite the global economic instability that raises prices of agricultural inputs and imposes variations in commodity values, the IBGE estimates for the 2022-2023 season a super harvest of grains, driven mainly by the record production of soybeans.

For the professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation and coordinator of the Professional Master’s Degree in Agribusiness (MPAgro) at FGV, Felippe Cauê Serigati, it is not just the oilseed’s performance that explains the solidity of Brazilian agriculture in the face of the context. He mentions that, for example, the avian flu, which causes concern in several countries, has not yet arrived here. As a result, Brazil has been exporting additional volumes of chicken meat. In addition, the FGV professor highlights the greater interest of the import market for domestic sugar, which has increased production in the sector.

“Despite all the turbulence, as the agro universe has a greater interaction with the external sector, it is natural that it finds this outlet, even when the domestic market is experiencing some turbulence”, he says.

Serigati believes that, throughout 2023, agricultural production should register strong growth. Estimates by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation indicate that the agribusiness GDP, the sum of everything produced by the sector, should grow 8% in the year.