Around 300 municipalities registered a climate emergency situation in 2024

Brazilian states are increasingly feeling the impacts of climate change. In the first six months of 2024, around 300 municipalities registered a climate-related emergency situation. Drought and low air humidity, for example, hit states such as Piauí and Minas Gerais the hardest. The data is available in the Integrated Disaster Information System (S2ID) of the Ministry of Development and Integration (MIDR).

Lawyer specializing in agrarian law Francisco Torma reports that the climate factor has caused losses to Brazilian crops, directly impacting the country’s macroeconomy. For him, the agricultural scenario in 2024 has proven to be challenging.

“In the Midwest, agricultural losses were due to a severe drought that began in 2023 and accompanied the production cycle of soybeans, the country’s main summer crop. As if the drought had not had a negative impact on grain formation, the rain arrived just when it was no longer needed: at harvest time. Production, which was already low, ended up being even lower on many properties due to the grain rotting on the plant itself, making it impossible to harvest,” he explains.

In the North Region alone, the negative effects caused by the drought have already affected more than 900 thousand people and caused – as of July 17 – economic losses of more than R$1.1 billion, according to the National Confederation of Municipalities (CNM).

Harvest and Market consultant and analyst Luís Fernando Gutierrez says that climate issues have affected several productions in Brazil and highlights soybeans, which, according to him, are the flagship of Brazilian agricultural production.

“The climate issue is the main issue in agricultural production. Without good weather, we cannot produce, we have losses and everything else. So, it is important that we take care of the climate issue, because especially in years of drought we have great production losses and great financial losses, obviously. So, it is important to pay attention to this,” he observes.

Low production

A survey by the Brazilian Association of Soybean Producers of Mato Grosso (Aprosoja-MT) shows that the negative scenario has reduced production and productivity. The estimate is that the 2023/24 soybean harvest could reach 21% in the state of Mato Grosso.

According to the survey, in January, the government of Tocantins declared a state of emergency due to the drought. Aprosoja-TO estimates at least 20% loss in the 2023/24 soybean harvest. In February, it was the government of Goiás’ turn to declare a state of emergency in 25 municipalities. Aprosoja-GO’s projections indicate a reduction of at least 15% in production potential in relation to the initial estimates, which were to reach 17.5 million tons.

For Francisco Torma, a lawyer specializing in agrarian law, the losses caused by climate issues are a concern for the Brazilian agricultural scenario.

“In many regions, productive soil was washed away and gave way to ditches and rocks. It is estimated that agribusiness in Rio Grande do Sul suffered losses of around R$3 billion and this number is only increasing. And this is not the only problem: it is estimated that it will take at least a decade to recover these losses. At the end of the winter harvest we will be able to estimate the year’s losses, but 2024 will certainly not be a year that Brazilian agriculture will remember fondly,” he laments.

Forecast for the next few days

An intense mass of hot and dry air, acting across a large part of the country, keeps the sky with few clouds, no rain, rising temperatures and low humidity, which favors the occurrence of forest fires, according to the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet).

In the Central-West, Rondônia, southern Amazonas, much of Pará, Tocantins, southern Maranhão, Piauí, as well as western Bahia and the Southeast, the forecast is that the air mass will act with greater intensity. The scenario is the same in western Minas Gerais, São Paulo and in areas of northern Paraná.

Inmet meteorologist Heráclio Alves says that rainfall is expected to be below average and the hot weather will persist, causing concern in some regions.

“In these locations, temperatures are expected to be higher, especially in Pará and Amazonas, as well as in Tocantins, where the maximum temperature could reach 37 degrees Celsius and there is little chance of rain in the coming days. Humidity in these locations is also expected to vary in the morning around 85%, but in the afternoon, due to the action of this air mass, humidity could drop below 20% in some locations,” he points out.