Commerce Business Confidence Index drops 0.2% in the last month

According to the research, the positive factor was the increase in the intention to hire employees, mainly among semi-durable goods entrepreneurs.

Icec scored 106.9 points in May. The biggest monthly highlight for traders was confidence in relation to the current conditions of the economy, with a reduction of 2.3% in relation to the previous month, revealing greater caution among businesspeople in relation to the economy and its impacts on trade. As a result, the current conditions sub-indicator continued to be the main influence on business confidence, -2.1%.

However, managers are being more restrained in relation to the expectations of the credit market, as they are unable to adjust companies’ budgets, taking into account that the balance of the credit portfolio with free resources from legal entities decreased by 0. 7% in the first quarter of 2024.

Despite the credit market not being completely favorable, the investment intentions indicator had the highest monthly growth, reaching 0.9%. The only item with a drop in this area was Intention to invest in the company, which reached -0.4% after four months of growth.

According to Newton Marques, economist, master and doctor in Economics from UFPE, and member of Corecon-DF, the concerns of traders need to be taken into consideration.

“There is greater caution among businesspeople regarding the economy. If we compare May with April, the drop was even higher, 2.3%. And when comparing May 2024 with May 2023, the drop is 1.4%. It is curious that this research captures this moment in which there is a reduction in unemployment, but the pessimism that grips commercial entrepreneurs has to be taken into account because it is from commercial sales that industries receive orders”, he explains.

The item with the biggest increase in investments was once again the Intention to Hire Employees, with 1.9%, indicated by consumers in the May ICF. Most businesspeople seek to increase their number of employees, which already stands at 63.7%, the highest percentage of the year, which shows that the positive results, observed in the General Register of Employed and Unemployed Persons of the Ministry of Labor (Caged), must continue.

In relation to the current perception of commerce, the activity of supermarkets, pharmacies and cosmetics stores was the one that showed the most confidence, with an indicator of 85.7 points, despite the biggest monthly decline. Retailers of clothing, footwear, fabrics and accessories noticed a monthly improvement in conditions in the sector.

All segments showed a drop in their expectations for the sector. However, although entrepreneurs of durable products and non-durable goods had a monthly drop in this indicator, they continue to present the highest level and at a level 4.9% above that observed in May of last year, with 120.8 percentage points.