Commerce: confidence index fell 4 points after two consecutive increases

The Commerce Confidence Index (ICOM), released this Wednesday (29) by FGV IBRE, fell 4.0 points in May, reaching 91.5 after two consecutive increases. In relation to the quarterly moving averages, the index remained high for the sixth consecutive month, presenting 0.7 points, beating 92.5 percentage points.

According to data from the report, in its third consecutive positive variation, the Expectations Index (IE-COM) advanced 0.1 point, reaching 93.0 points, remaining at the highest level since October 2022.

According to Georgia Veloso, a specialist economist at FGV IBRE, the drop in trade confidence in May returns part of the gains obtained in the coming months — and is observed in a very diffuse way.

“The current situation indicators, mainly volume and demand, approached a level of neutrality, reaching close to 100 points. But, now they are suffering a major loss. This shock in demand was felt in five of the six main segments of in a very significant way, such as a drop of, on average, 8 points. This drop, in the current situation, was spread across the regions, but with a strong influence from companies in Rio Grande do Sul intensifying this result in the coming months. uncertainty among companies is observed, with a very heterogeneous result between sectors”, he explains.

In turn, the indicator on sales prospects for the next three months fell 0.5 points, reaching 92.0 percentage points after two consecutive increases. Also according to the study, expectations about business trends over the next six months increased by 0.8 points, reaching 94.2 percentage points, the highest level since September 2022 — when it registered 96.9 points.

The Current Situation Index (ISA-COM) fell 7.9 points, reaching 90.6 percentage points, demonstrating negative results in both indicators that comprise it: the indicator that evaluates the volume of current demand, which reached 90 .8 percentage points. And assessments of the current business situation, which varied negatively by 7.2 points after three consecutive increases — reaching 90.6 percentage points.