Commerce Confidence Index increases 5.1 points in April

The Commerce Confidence Index (ICOM) registered an increase of 5.1 points in April, reaching 95.5 points. This is the highest level since September 2022, when it was at 96.6 points. When considering quarterly moving averages, the index increased for the fifth month in a row, by 1.7 points to 91.8 points. The data was released by the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV IBRE).

For economist Cesar Bergo, confidence increased mainly due to economic indicators. “We have seen a drop in inflation, an increase in income, maintenance of employment and a drop in interest rates. All of this causes consumption to increase, and we are seeing this in practice. Also the distribution of the 13th in two stages, now in May and June, irrigates the economy, improves consumption conditions and improves business confidence”, he points out.

Economist Luigi Mauri reports that in April, it is observed that the level of current demand is more “interesting” for store owners in the commerce area. “Demand was a problem they reported as insufficient, one of their main complaints. And if we observed that this complaint was not reported in April, there was an improvement in the level of demand”, he points out.

Expectations

The Expectations Index recorded its second consecutive positive change, increasing 4.6 points and recording 92.9 points in April. This is the highest level since October 2022, when it registered 93.0 points.

Both components of the Expectations Index showed positive variations in the month: the indicator relating to sales prospects over the next three months increased by 5.5 points, reaching 92.5 points, while expectations about the business trajectory over the next six months increased by 3 .5 points, reaching 93.4 points.

For Mauri, the trend is uncertain for the coming months, but maintains an optimistic tone given the increase in family income and consumer confidence.

“This future expectation is also strongly linked to interest rates in Brazil, which in turn depend on the Central Bank’s point of view, the performance of the dollar and inflation. This confidence closely linked to future interest rates may be a little uncertain,” he explains.

He highlights that the value of the dollar has risen, and that despite inflation having presented a “good” result in the preview with the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA-15) in April, it is high.

Mauri also points out that interest rates are an important factor for the performance of the commerce sector. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to this metric in the coming months.

By Brasil 61