Commerce Entrepreneur Confidence Index increased 2.5% in April, points out CNC

The Commerce Entrepreneur Confidence Index (Icec), surveyed monthly by the National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), increased 2.5% in April this year, discounting seasonal effects. The increase in the month, which made the indicator reach 111.3 points, interrupted the series of four declines in retailers’ optimism, observed since November 2022. In comparison with the same month of 2021, however, there was a 5.7% drop , especially with regard to the conditions of the economy and the trade sector, which were better last year.

CNC economist Izis Ferreira points out that the index showed excellent results in April, but points out that the scenario still leaves something to be desired when compared to the same period in 2022.

“It is important to note that this first month of the second quarter, this month of April, brought this positive news in relation to the retailers’ view, for the coming months, the very view in relation to what is happening at this moment. But we still have an optimism that is at a lower level than it was in the period of last year”, he says.

For Izis, this advance brought a greater result of hiring in retail, especially also for this seasonal moment, which he considers important.

“This improvement in the margin has also brought a greater impact on retail hiring, we are talking about an important seasonal moment. Mother’s Day, for example, which is very close, is the second most relevant date in terms of high sales in the trade calendar, behind only Christmas. This quarter involves, in addition to Mother’s Day, Valentine’s Day. And with that slightly more benign look, in relation to the performance of the commerce and in relation to what is expected of the sales for the months, the merchants increased their intention to hire employees, which is good news, precisely at the moment when the people have seen the deceleration of the unemployment rate”, he points out.

For Carla Beni, professor of MBAs at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, other retail groups are adapting, cutting costs and closing stores. In her assessment, this is due to the low family budget and young people over 18 with defaults.

“But other retail groups are adapting, cutting costs and closing stores. So, the issue of family income is crucial for a country that has a low average income, where installment payments are very important in terms of payment methods, and rates have been high for a long time. So the cost of credit is taking the toll on default. Today, we have 43% of the adult population over 18 with overdue, delinquent accounts. So, this is an issue that ends up curbing a perspective for retail, signaling a certain difficulty for the coming months, ”he says.