Confidence in services rises 2.6 points in March, according to FGV IBRE

This high is caused, according to FGV IBRE, by the improvement in the perception of businessmen of the current situation and also of expectations for the coming months. The president of the Council of the Fundação da Liberdade Econômica, Márcio Coimbra, explains that entrepreneurs in the sector are more confident about investments and hiring.

“It is a turning point in confidence, which is also translated by the government’s policies and by bringing a new fiscal anchor, a new fiscal discipline, and also an expectation that the government will be able to deliver mechanisms that can make Brazil’s economy turn around. ”, points out Coimbra.

The downward trend seen over the past five months in the Current Situation Index (ISA-S) was interrupted with an increase of 2.1 points, rising to 93.1 points. According to the survey, two indicators were responsible for this growth, which measures the current demand volume increased by 2.0 points (92.2 points), and which evaluates the degree of satisfaction with the current business situation, which grew by 2.1 points (93.9 points).

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Despite the positive result, the first quarter of confidence in services was negative and with a marginal decline. With that, this is already the second quarter with a drop in confidence in the sector, which reflects the scenario of weaker activity, according to the survey. Services provided to families, which had been showing a stronger recovery, showed more intense declines at the beginning of this year.

This drop has been felt by businessman Lucas Sá, 29 years old. He has had a hamburger restaurant in Asa Norte, in Brasília, for four years. The businessman says that the business is still recovering from the pandemic, but that the beginning of the year for the enterprise was not very good.

“This year the situation is not good. It was already a little expected due to the rainy season, the population of Brasília travels to the beach. There was also Carnival, which was not interesting for us, our stores were very empty. I imagine that, due to the population’s lack of money, the shops are pretty empty”, says Lucas Sá.

The hamburger shop owner believes that the lack of money on the part of potential customers and the consequent decrease in purchasing power is what hurt the sector in this first quarter. “The price of things keeps increasing and the sector is unable to increase in the same way, because otherwise it loses customers”, he says.

Expectations

The Expectations Index increased by 3.0 points, reaching 90.4 points, the best result since November 2022. This index measures the perspective of entrepreneurs in the sector for the coming months (90.7 points). The influences for the positive result were the demand prospects for the next three months (+3.2 points) and the business trend for the next six months (+2.8 points), reaching 90.3 and 90.6 points , respectively.

Coimbra says that the outlook for the coming months depends on some factors, such as the approval of the fiscal anchor in the National Congress and the approval of the Tax Reform. “If these paths are reached, we will continue with the growth of optimism in the services area in Brazil. (…) So everything will depend, basically, on two points that are essential at this moment: the new fiscal anchor and the tax reform”, explains the president of the Board of the Freedom Economic Foundation.