Consumer Confidence Index rises, but the economic scenario is still uncertain

Even with the Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) rising 1.9 points in June, the scenario is still one of uncertainty and fear of spending. The assessment is made by investment advisor and Head of Blue3 Investimentos, Leonardo Fernandes. According to him, the picture released in FGV Ibre’s latest balance sheet shows that there is still insecurity on the part of the consumer.

“It still shows a very low final data, it is pessimistic, people are still afraid to buy, afraid to spend, in other words, there is a lot of insecurity, a lot of uncertainty in relation to the economic scenario, which still leaves it stuck”, he points out.

“So the final number is still not good. However, it stops getting worse and rises a little is good news. Based on this, we recently had, and we can even reinforce here, the teachers’ strike. So there will be adjustments, other areas are having adjustments and managing to negotiate adjustments. This improves expectations, but again the final number is quite pessimistic in relation to what could be”, he adds.

The quarterly moving average of the index remained stable at 91.2 points, the data was released on Monday (24) on the FGV IBRE website. The increase in confidence in June reflects both future expectations and current consumer assessments.

The Expectations Index (IE) registered an increase of 2.6 points, reaching 98.1 points, recovering part of the drop observed in the previous month. On the other hand, the Current Situation Index (ISA) increased by 1.0 points, reaching 81.6 points, the highest level since November 2023 (82.0 points).

Among the components of the Consumer Confidence Index (ICC), the indicator that measures the momentum of purchases of durable goods made the greatest contribution to the increase in confidence in the month, rising 5.2 points and reaching 84.0 points, after a significant drop in the previous month.

Furthermore, indicators measuring the outlook for the future situation of the economy and future household finances rose 2.0 and 0.3 points to 110.3 and 100.4 points, respectively, although both have not yet recovered drop recorded in May.

The scenario pointed out by Leonardo Fernandes is experienced by Paulo Tiago, a 40-year-old public servant. A resident of Águas Claras, in the Federal District, he reports concerns about the increase in prices of consumer products.

“Mainly in consumer goods, in consumer food products, where we have really seen a worsening in the cost of doing our monthly shopping, and today we cannot leave the house and buy bread and cheese without spending less than 50 reais. So, it really is a very absurd value”, he considers.

The perception of families’ personal finances also improved, with the indicator increasing 2.2 points to 71.5 points, the highest level since November 2023, when it was 73.6 points. However, the only indicator to vary negatively was the one measuring the perception of the local economy, which fell 0.3 points, reaching 92.0 points.