Delay caused difference between forecast and final result of the census

The deputy president of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Cimar Azeredo (photo), said this Friday (30th) that the lack of updating data before the collection made for the 2022/2023 Census is the explanation for the difference between the total population released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) on Wednesday (28) and the estimates presented earlier by the body itself.

In December last year, the IBGE calculated that Brazil had 207.8 million inhabitants and, in 2021, estimated the total at 213.3 million. However, the 2022/2023 Demographic Census showed that the current Brazilian population is 203 million, 62 thousand and 512 people, based on the reference date, July 31, 2022. The total recorded in the last census survey was lower than expected , despite the increase of 12 million, 306 thousand and 713 people, 6.5% more, in comparison with the 2010 Census. At that moment, there were 190 million, 755 thousand and 799 residents in the country.

In the case of the 2022/2023 edition, in addition to the delay, since the census should have been carried out in 2020, there was no population count that is usually carried out in the middle of the decade. As a result, the data is no longer updated, explained Cimar Azeredo.

“The last time we did a census at IBGE was in 2010. The last population count was in 2010. A count should have been done in 2015, but it wasn’t done. The government did not provide resources for the IBGE to carry out this count. The conclusion of this is that we arrived in 2022 with the registration outdated, very outdated and, therefore, we estimate different from what actually happened now”, said Azeredo in an interview with Brazil Agency.

The deputy president of the IBGE informed that every census is calculated based on information from the previous edition. “The structure of an estimate is to vary the Census from 2000 to 2010. This advance, this growth trend will be replicated over the next decade. If a municipality has grown, I will replicate that growth and add the movements of demographic components, such as migration, fertility, mortality. But the method implies that, in the middle of the decade, there is a count.”

Azeredo cited as an example of population changes that may occur between two editions of the census the case of a municipality that had strong and accelerated growth as a result of the installation of an industry in the place or, on the contrary, if an industry left the city.

He said that the absence of the mid-decade count caused a very large departure from the estimate and projections in relation to the population actually counted in the census.

“We have a count today. The last one was made in 2010 and, as the name says, it was an estimate. Of course, a census has an error built into it, as (in) every operation, it is inherent to the census operation, but, effectively, the official population of Brazil is the population counted, because it is the best method to obtain the total. Here’s a lesson: don’t forget to count the middle of the decade. For this reason, the IBGE today defends that, in 2025, we make the count, so that in 2030 we are not here discussing the same subject”, he added.

“This (census survey), in addition to being very far from the last count, which should not have happened – we moved away from 2010 and did not do the census in 2020, we did not do it in 2021, that is, in addition to not doing the count, we moved 12 years away from the last census. So, the estimate arrives with less precision and more distant from the last census. Is she a bad number? No, it’s the best number we have at the moment. That’s why we made the decision to use the preview. The estimate or the preview? That was the choice in December,” he said.

Azeredo recalled that the census was carried out after the period of the covid-19 pandemic and that this is reflected in the data. “Doing a census after a pandemic and wanting Brazil to be in the same format is impossible. The population changes, the age structure changes. We have to see how the population is spreading across the territory.”

“We have to talk about remote work, we have to talk about telework, an incredible change in the job market. It is important to analyze this information, based on what happened to the Brazilian population after the pandemic and what policies can be developed. Brazil may not develop, or grow, for any reason, except for lack of information. We have fundamental information at the smallest geographic levels available,” she added.

According to Azeredo, among the information available now, there is the access of children and adolescents to schools, labor market information to evaluate, mainly where it is necessary to install companies or industries to increase the population in the workforce, and also public safety. .

According to the IBGE, the increase of 12 million, 306 thousand and 713 people compared to the 2010 census is the lowest geometric rate of population growth since 1872, when the first census was carried out in Brazil. Azeredo stated that the pace of growth, according to the last editions, has been decreasing, which reinforces the conclusion about the aging of the Brazilian population. “We have a completely different age pyramid. We have to know that Brazil is aging and turning gray. We have to improve policies for caring for people. It is essential to have this in the census. Where is this population?” he questioned.

The delay in information also had effects on public policies. For the demographer and epidemiologist of the National School of Public Health of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (ENSP-Fiocruz) Raphael Guimarães, the census is today the most powerful instrument to provide diagnoses at the municipal level for the formulation of public policies. “Whenever we move away from the deadline for carrying out the census, we are, more and more, operating public policies in the dark”, said Guimarães to the Brazil Agency.

As an example of the impact, the demographer cited the distribution of vaccines against covid-19, made during the pandemic by the Ministry of Health based on outdated information. “The vaccine is a good example of this. We have to think about the number of vaccines considering the size of the population and the context in which we are creating eligibility criteria to apply the vaccine. It is necessary to consider what age structure this population has. If you have an estimate of the elderly population that you are not serving, you are offering fewer doses to the elderly than you should.”

Guimarães added that it is not just because of the population size, but because there is an expectation of a percentage of elderly people in the population that will not necessarily correspond to reality. For him, this was very evident because of the pandemic.

“This thing of having lost almost 1 million people, just over 700,000 deaths from covid alone, we look at this and try to understand what effect it has on the structure of the population. We didn’t have a lot of young adult death. This has a very considerable compounding effect that will bring consequences in the short and medium term”, she pointed out.

In addition to the distribution of vaccines, the researcher noted that the delay influenced the definition of beds to know the type of each according to age, the organization of the health system and the number of women of childbearing age. “The exact number and age structure of the population are very important to redirect health policy, not only to make some things a priority, but to make the appropriate targeting and make public policy fulfill its role”, he said.

Counties

The National Confederation of Municipalities (CNM) pointed out losses for cities in which there was a reduction in the number of inhabitants. In a note, the CNM assessed that the census data “do not faithfully represent the reality of the country and have a direct impact on the resources transferred to local entities, especially in relation to the Municipalities Participation Fund and various federal programs that consider population size” .

According to the confederation, the very sharp deviations between the estimated and actual population observed in the census indicate “estimate errors with serious consequences for municipal management”.

Cimar Azeredo said that the fact that the municipality is losing population is not caused by the census, and the municipality will gain from the data available in the census survey, since it will have fundamental information for the elaboration of public policies. “The impact that the census has on municipalities is always positive, providing information and allowing the mayor and civil society, armed with this information, to make the municipality grow. Losing population was not due to the census, which only accuses this and shows that the Municipal Participation Fund can be better distributed”, said Azeredo.

The CNM informed that, “since it understands the relevance of this X-ray for the country”, it will work with the National Congress and the Executive so that a new population count is carried out in 2025, to ensure effective data and correct the distortions resulting from the survey. This count in 2025 is the mid-decade count that Cimar Azeredo considers fundamental in all editions of the census and hopes that it will take place on the right date.

After presenting information on population and households, the IBGE has already scheduled the next data releases for the 2022/2023 Census.

Cimar Azeredo added that they will be made separately for the set of information on each topic. There will be several thematic disclosures, starting with the quilombola population, then indigenous people, the age of Brazil, the Brazil that can read and write, the color of Brazil. Favela is also in the advertisements. “There will be several disclosures and all very close, with a distance between 15 or 20 days.”