Economic uncertainty oscillates in a narrow but high range

The Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-Br), measured by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, dropped 0.8 points in May, to 111.8 points, still high, but the lowest since February this year, when the index registered 111, 7 points.

According to specialists, since September of last year, the IIE-Br fluctuates in an uncomfortable level of economic uncertainty. The slight drop in May is explained by the Media component, as the Expectations component moved in the opposite direction. What positively influences the country’s economic scenario is the progress of the proposal for a new fiscal framework, the relative resilience of economic activity and signs of disinflation. In the future, the convergence of the indicator to more comfortable levels depends on continuing to build a more favorable macroeconomic scenario.

The component of expectations, now at 114 points, grew for the third time in a row and contributed to the increase in the index. In contrast, the Media component reached the lowest level since November 2019.

By Brasil 61