Expert believes that technological advances will boost Brazilian agribusiness

Technology will be the differential for the future of agricultural production. For the BMJ agribusiness consultant, Victor Nogueira, Brazilian agriculture has, over time, promoted an increase in productivity not by expanding the agricultural frontier or by hiring a larger amount of labor, but by using more advanced and efficient agricultural inputs. “In the coming years, there will be an increasingly capital-intensive strengthening, through greater use of treated seeds, more advanced and more efficient fertilizers and pesticides, genetically modified organisms, more technological machines, all of this increasingly adapted to each type of soil, each type of climate, each type of biome. So, the growth of Brazilian agricultural production must continue guided by the increase in productivity driven by technological advances, reaching increasingly higher levels of total productivity of the factors employed in the activity”, he observes.

Figures from the recent study “Projeções do Agronegócio, Brasil 2022/23 to 2032/33”, carried out by the Agricultural Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (Mapa) and by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), point out that grain production in Brazil should increase by 24.1% in the next ten years, reaching close to 390 million tons in the 2032/2033 harvest. The estimated increase is 75.5 million tons. In practice, this corresponds to a growth rate of 2.4% per year. Soybeans, second-crop corn (safrinha) and cotton should continue leveraging grain production growth. The grain area should also expand from the current 77.5 million hectares (Conab – May/2023) to 92.3 million hectares in 2032/33.

The technical advisor of the National Cereals, Fibers and Oilseeds Commission of the Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil (CNA), Tiago Pereira, believes that these numbers could be even higher. Despite not working with projections, he thinks that this estimate is somewhat conservative. “Grain production must overcome. We believe that these gains in production, productivity in area, are feasible, unless we have very severe weather problems. Otherwise, when we analyze the history of productivity gains and the country’s sustainable tendency to recover degraded pastures, for example, we may have an expansion in area. It is possible to reach or even surpass this number”, he evaluates.

According to the report, soy production in 2032/33 is projected at 186.7 million tons, with an increase of 20.6% in relation to the production of 2022/23. The export projection of soy in grain is at 121.4 million tons, with an expected participation of 60.6% in world shipments.

According to consultant Victor Nogueira, this soy growth is already expected due to the country’s need to increase exports. “Soybean is in great demand not only for human food, but also for animal consumption, since the world consumption of proteins has increased and poultry as well, and also for the production of biofuels, due to climate issues. Soybean will continue to be the main Brazilian agricultural product for export”, he highlights.

The agronomist Vinicius Novaes is betting on new productions. “Brazil is a major technology exporter. We are in a tropical country, where the attack of pests and diseases is very intensive and Brazil excels in production, different from the European climate that spends time in the cold and paralyzes the cycle of pests and diseases. Technology is also present in soy, corn and wheat seeds – mainly because Brazil will soon become a wheat exporter. The technology is in the field, and Brazil has a lot of technology in the field”, he points out.

Corn

Total corn production is projected at 160 million tonnes for 2032/33, up 27% from 2022/23 production. Brazil and the United States should jointly lead world corn exports, estimated at 69 million tons per country. It corresponds to a share in exports of 30% for each of the countries.

Agricultural consultant Victor Nogueira points out that there are estimates that the world population will reach the mark of 9 billion people in 2050. Allied to world economic growth, he says that this will lead to an expansion of food production worldwide. And Brazil, which is currently one of the greatest agricultural powers, should take advantage of this effect by further strengthening its production. “It is expected that the Brazilian agribusiness will continue to invest in this activity through the expansion of the cultivated area, with the use of increasingly qualified labor, research and development of techniques and inputs aimed at increasing productivity”.

The expert also indicates environmental concern as a factor to increase productivity. “Efforts must be made to prevent expansion from generating environmental and climate costs. So, both the private and public sectors must work together to avoid deforestation, the expansion of the area dedicated to cultivation must advance through the recovery of degraded pastures, so that areas that have protection of native forests continue with this purpose. In this way, agribusiness must continue to increase its importance for the Brazilian economy”, he says.

According to the MAPA and Embrapa document, meat production (beef, pork and chicken) should also increase by 6.6 million tons between 2022/23 and 2032/33, representing a 22.4% increase. Leaving the current 29.6 million tons for 36.2 million tons of meat. The projections for lint cotton indicate production of 3.6 million tons in ten years, expansion of 26.8%, mainly dominated by productivity. Mato Grosso and Bahia currently account for 90% of national production. Increased productivity is expected to be driven by genetic improvement, better agronomic practices, new technologies and precision agriculture.

check out here the projections of Agribusiness Brazil – 2022/23 to 2032/33.