Focus bulletin: inflation expectations drop for the sixth consecutive week

The financial market reduced inflation expectations, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (IPCA). According to data from Boletim Focus, the projection of the index is 5.06%, which represents a drop in comparison with the index released a week ago. This is the sixth fall in a row of inflation expectations. The information was disclosed by the Central Bank this Monday (26).

The IPCA is considered the official index that measures Brazilian inflation. For 2023, the inflation target, defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), is 3.25%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points (pp), up or down. Therefore, the inflation expectation still remains above the target.

In relation to GDP, there is an increase in the projection for the seventh consecutive week, compared to the previous week, by 2.18%. The increase also occurs in view of the release of the Gross Domestic Product result for the first quarter of 2023, up 1.9%.

The dollar projection remains at the same level since last week. The currency is quoted at R$ 5.00.

Even if the inflation expectation exceeds its target ceiling, it can be said that, together, the IPCA, GDP and Exchange indices, released this Monday, indicate an improvement in the Brazilian economy in 2023.

By Brasil 61