GDP-FGV monitor grows 1.6% in the first quarter of 2023

The GDP-FGV Research Monitor, by Fundação Getúlio Vargas, points to a GDP growth of 1.6%, in economic activity in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, considering seasonally adjusted data. In the interannual comparison, economic growth in the first quarter was 3.6%. In the monthly analysis, the economy grew 1.8% in March compared to February and 4.5% compared to March 2022.

Economist Juliane Trece, research coordinator (FGV-IBRE), points out that this increase in the GDP Monitor was related to the development of agricultural activities.

“The 1.6% growth of the Brazilian economy in the first quarter of 2023, according to the GDP Monitor, is mainly due to agricultural activity. Our main agricultural producer is soy. And most of it is harvested in the first quarter of the year. With the record harvest for this year, this ended up explaining why we had this expressive growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2022,” he highlights.

Household consumption also grew by 4.7% in the first quarter. The only consumption component to retract in this comparison was that of semi-durables, as occurred throughout 2022, the largest positive contributions were from the consumption of services and non-stable. The latter was mainly driven by the fuel segment.

How was the growth of exports and imports of products in the first quarter of 2023

Export

Exports of goods and services grew by 5.7% in the first quarter. The performance of the export of mineral extractive products and services are the main factors responsible for the strong performance of the component, highlights the survey carried out by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV-IBRE), As the negative contribution stands out the retraction of the export of intermediate goods .

Import

Total imports retracted 2.1% after eight consecutive months of growth in moving quarters. This was due to the drop in imports of agricultural products, extractives, and intermediate goods. Although imports of services grew by 11.6% in the first quarter, the decrease in their contribution was significant in 2022.

Economist Guid Nunes, from the company Cooperativa Brasileira de Serviços Empresariais, says that projections for the coming months are 2% in GDP growth, but it is necessary to observe how development will be until the end of 2023.

“And the initial forecast scenario was 1% per year, so with this data from the first quarter, forecasts are reaching 2% from several researchers for the year 2023. But we still have to check the breakdown throughout the year, because our interest rate is very high, it’s the highest real rate in the world, it’s a rate of 9% a year,” he says.

The investment rate in the first quarter of 2023 was 15.7%, in the series at current values. This result is lower than the average investment rate in the two analyzed periods, having a level similar to the investment rate seen in the 2017 quarter. of agriculture in the country.