Grain production will reach 390 million tons in 10 years

The forecast is part of the study Projections of Agribusiness, Brazil 2022/23 to 2032/33, made by the Secretary of Agricultural Policy of the folder, in partnership with the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa).

According to the ministry, this increase in production will be achieved at a growth rate of 2.4% per year. In terms of area destined for grain planting, the expectation is an expansion from the current 77.5 million hectares to 92.3 million hectares in 2032/33”.

Investments in research

Soy cultivation should account for 78% of the expansion in planted area. It is expected that, between 2032 and 2033, 186.7 million tons of oilseed will be harvested. The number represents an increase of 20.6%, compared to the production of 2022/23.

The survey warns that, although agribusiness projections show an “enormous growth potential” for the sector, it will be necessary to increase investments in research.

“The addition of 14.7 million hectares to the area planted with grains could come from the conversion of currently degraded areas, particularly from extensive pastures, among other possibilities, which avoid affecting the country’s vegetation cover,” the ministry said in a note.

corn and cotton

Like soy, corn should also be influenced by its increasing use for the production of biofuels (biodiesel and corn ethanol). According to the survey, the total estimated production of this grain for 2032/33 is 160 million tons: an increase of 27% in comparison with the production of 2022/23.

“Exports and demand for corn for ethanol production will be two important forces to stimulate cultivation. Corn acquires growing importance as a raw material and as food”, detailed, in a note, the Mapa.

The study projects, in ten years, a production of 3.6 million tons of lint cotton. This will represent an increase of 26.8% of the product that currently has, as origin of 90% of the national production, Mato Grosso and Bahia.

“The increase in productivity is expected to be driven by genetic improvement, better agronomic practices, new technologies and precision agriculture,” the ministry said.

Carnes

With regard to meat production (beef, pork and chicken), the expectation is for an increase of 6.6 million tons between 2022/23 and 2032/33. If the projections are confirmed, the result will represent an increase of 22.4% in production, which will go from the current 29.6 million tons to 36.2 million tons.

“Poultry and pork meat should show the highest growth rates in the coming years: chicken, 28.1% and pork, 23.2%. Beef production is expected to grow by 12.4%, although Brazil continues to lead the international market for the product, supplying 28.5% of world consumption”, details the Map, based on expectations of “infrastructure growth efforts” in the country, in addition to “investment in research and financing for the sector”.

According to research, the increase in national meat production should be pressured with the growth of the domestic market and exports. About 35.5% of chicken meat production; and 14.8% of pork will be destined for the domestic market. “Although Brazil is a major exporter of several products, domestic consumption will be relevant”, predicts Mapa.

“The domestic market, exports and productivity gains should be the main growth factors in the next decade. In 2032/33, close to 33% of soybean production should be destined for the domestic market, corn, 65%, and coffee, almost 43% of production, should be consumed internally”, he adds.