Household consumption intention grows 2.6% in June

Brazilians are more optimistic about employment and, therefore, increase their intention to buy. This is the conclusion of the national survey of Family Consumption Intention (ICF), released today (22), in Rio de Janeiro, by the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC). It shows an increase in the intention of consumption, in June, of 2.6% in relation to May.

In CNC’s analysis, these data, however, are not yet reflected in sales. Although they are more confident in the future of employment, Brazilians are also indebted and facing credit restrictions. In addition, high interest rates also limit consumption. These factors, according to the entity, cause retail sales and services to slow down.

Consumption intention is a leading indicator of the sales potential of retailers, calculated monthly. The results measure the degree of consumer satisfaction and dissatisfaction on a scale of up to 200 points. When the index is below 100 points, this indicates a perception of dissatisfaction. When it is above 100, it signals satisfaction.

In June, the IFC reached 97.3 points, which represented a positive variation of 2.6% in relation to May and, in the year, an increase of 21.3%.

optimism at work

In all, 18,000 questionnaires are analyzed monthly, with consumer information collected across the country. Data are compiled into seven indicators: three on current conditions (employment, income and consumption level); two about expectations for three months ahead (consumer perspective and professional perspective); and evaluation of access to credit and the current moment for the acquisition of durable goods.

In June – for the third consecutive month – all indicators advanced in monthly and annual comparisons. Four of the seven indicators are in the positive quadrant, that is, above 100 points: satisfaction with current employment and income, and professional and consumer perspectives.

The survey revealed that the professional perspective was the indicator with the highest rise in June: 4.9%. The index reached 122.3 points, the highest level since March 2015.

For the CNC, the greater satisfaction with the current job is a reflection of the generation of formal vacancies by the service sector and civil construction, sectors that have been hiring people with a lower level of education.

Shopping

The indicator that measures the purchase intention of durables advanced 6.5% in the month, but the level remains below 100 points, registering 57.8 points. According to the CNC, despite job security, select and expensive credit limits the acquisition of this type of product. The survey found that four out of ten consumers reported having more difficulty obtaining credit.

The advance in the intention to consume in June was more expressive among consumers of medium and low incomes, a group that registered an increase of 3.1%. Among high-income consumers, growth was 2.2%.

The difference is provoked, according to the CNC, by the better professional perspective, an indicator that grew 5.8% in the group that earns less than 10 minimum wages. In this group, 52% believe they will have better working conditions in the coming months, the highest proportion since April 2015. Among the highest income group, the professional perspective increased by 2.8%.