Household consumption intentions increase 0.5%, marking growth for the third month

In June, Household Consumption Intention (ICF) registered an increase of 0.5%, discounting seasonal effects. This is the third consecutive positive result for the index. Compared to June 2023, there was an increase of 5.1%. The Consumer Confidence Index (ICF) is currently at 102.2 points, indicating a zone of optimism. The information was released by the National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC).

André Galhardo, economic consultant at Remessa Online, recalls that in May, the Consumer Confidence Index, monitored and released by Fundação Getúlio Vargas, showed that family confidence fell significantly, greatly influenced by the tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul. South.

In the state, the floods caused a 23.3% drop in household consumption intentions, compared to the same period last year.

“This June indicator should be well received, cautiously, it is true, but it should be well received. Last year, much of our growth was conditioned on the good performance of agriculture, which ended up causing a spillover effect. The good performance of agriculture brought good business to the services sector, and consequently, good business to industry”, he points out.

He explains that the high interest rate impacted the industry, but despite this, the harmful effects of the contractionary monetary policy were mitigated. Galhardo also highlights the positive performance of retail trade.

For economist Cesar Bergo, the advance can have several impacts on the economy of the municipalities, as when families demonstrate this greater willingness to consume, it generally boosts local commerce and stimulates economic activity in various sectors.

“Commercial establishments in cities and municipalities tend to register an increase in the sale of products and services. There is no doubt that this ends up generating more jobs. So the increase in demand for service goods can lead companies to hire more employees to meet this growing demand”, he informs.

Credit

According to the CNC survey, with the heated job market and stricter criteria for access to credit, families positively evaluated their current level of consumption, this being the indicator that grew the most in June, with an increase of 1.5% . The consumption outlook increased 0.9% in the month and 3.8% in the year, rates lower than those recorded in May. Only 36.5% of consumers plan to increase their spending, the lowest percentage since January 2023, while the number of people who intend to reduce their purchases has grown.

Perspectives

For Bergo, the survey shows that the trend in family consumption has been advancing for a few months and the prospect is that it will continue to improve, benefiting the economic activities of the municipalities.

Galhardo also points to a positive expectation. For him, retail trade and the services sector should resume their upward trajectory, influenced by factors such as the relative drop in inflation and the creation of formal jobs.

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