Industrial production is 18.5% below the record level of May 2011

According to the manager of the Monthly Industrial Survey (PIM) of the IBGE, André Macedo, the fall of 0.6% in April in industrial production is not a characteristic of the month. “There is a loss of intensity in industrial production and the distance from higher points gives a little of that dimension, of how much the industrial sector needs to recover to reach the levels of the past”, he said, this Friday (2), in press conference on the results of the April survey.

Macedo noted that, since January 2021, the industrial sector has only been showing a loss in relation to the pre-pandemic level, even entering March 2021 with a negative balance and, subsequently, remaining negative compared to the very recent level, which is the pre-pandemic, that is, February 2020. “This gives a little of the size of the losses that the industrial sector has been facing and how much it has to recover to overcome these historical levels of the research”, he pointed out.

Profile

The researcher drew attention to the widespread decline among activities in April. “This month’s result shows this characteristic of a widespread decline. There are 16 activities in the negative field and, in terms of economic categories, there are two with a decline in production. Capital goods and durable consumer goods with more intense declines and intermediate goods and semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, showing growth.”

Work stoppages, granting of vacations to workers in the sector and downtime for maintenance contributed to the results in several industrial segments. “This is very present in the results and is more evident in the downward movement, especially in the automobile industry”, he added. The automaker still had an impact with the difficulty in accessing electronic components.

“These combined factors, both on the supply and demand sides, help prevent industrial production,” he said.

According to the manager, the widespread profile of losses, observed since October of last year in the negative field, lights up a warning signal, as most industrial segments are in the negative field and have characteristics reinforced by conjunctural aspects, with higher interest rates, more expensive credit, difficulty in accessing credit, higher default rates, greater indebtedness on the part of families and difficulty in accessing raw materials.

“These are factors that are present within our situation and very much justify this movement of reduction in industrial production that we have been observing for some time”, he concluded.

The slowdown in the pace of inflation, according to the researcher, remains within our technical analysis process for the research, especially in the area of ​​food, because it may have some kind of influence on the disposable income of families. However, as he explained, the factor is no longer as present as it was last year.

“For this reason, we say that it is part of the factors that will help us to understand the movement of loss over time in industrial production. This is a less present point than it was in the past, just as there is a degree of improvement in the labor market, but there is a large contingent of workers outside it. Something like 9 million people.”