Industry confidence rises 2.4 points in March and reaches the highest index since October 2022
The survey carried out by the institute also evaluated a rise in confidence in 13 of the 19 segments analyzed. According to FGV IBRE, this optimism comes in relation to the prospects for the coming months, despite the worsening perception of the current situation. The Current Situation Index (ISA) changed negatively by 1.3 points, remaining at 91.5 points. This is the worst result since June 2020 (89.1 points).
Regarding the ISA, what had the most negative influence on the index, which dropped 2.7 points to 109.3 points, was the indicator that measures the level of inventory. When this index is above 100 points, it means that the industry is operating with inventories above what is desirable, excessive.
In relation to the Expectations Index (IE) there was an increase of 6.1 points, rising to 97.5 points. It is the best result since September 2022 (98.0 points). For the next three months, the indicator that assesses employment showed an increase of 7.0 points, reaching 101.8 points – returning to the level of October last year.
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The federal adviser and coordinator of the economic policy commission of the Federal Economic Council (Cofecon), Fernando de Aquino, explains that the improvement in the Industry Confidence Index was a reflection of the expectations and optimism of businessmen, due to the policies to encourage the sector consumption and investment.
“This index of expectations improved due to the optimism of businessmen in the sector regarding policies to encourage assistance transfers to lower-income sectors, but also a credit policy by public banks, such as the BNDES, which will encourage sectors of industry”, points out Aquino.
Another index that showed growth was the Industry Installed Capacity Utilization Level, which varied positively by 0.3 percentage points, to 79%, after falling for eight consecutive months.
Outlook for the coming months
Despite the increase in the index in March, Renan Gomes de Pieri, a doctor in economics from the São Paulo School of Economics of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, explains that the scenario for the sector is still one of stability. When compared to the same period last year, industry confidence is lower.
“In the coming months, we should have a certain stagnation or, at least, an oscillation in industry confidence at a lower level than it was last year. This is due to the difficulties that the economy is facing at the moment, with a perspective of reduction in economic activity”, points out the economist.
However, Pieri also indicates that monthly improvements due to seasonal factors may occur in the coming months. “Or simply because in times of pessimism it is natural for confidence to drop more than the economic reality justifies. A little of this March recovery has to do with that, the understanding that the scenario is not as negative as expected”, explains the doctor in economics.
By Brasil 61
