Inflation by the IPC-S decelerates 0.70% in the first evaluation of April

According to the calculation, four of the eight expense classes that make up the index registered a drop in the variation rates, with emphasis on the Transport group (2.82% to 2.27%). In this expense class, the decrease was driven by the licensing of the Tax on Motor Vehicle Property (IPVA), whose price varied by 1.49%, compared to 3.52% in the previous edition of the IPC-S.

The following groups also presented a decrease: Housing (0.94% to 0.82%), Health and Personal Care (0.96% to 0.89%) and Communication (0.30% to 0.21%).

For the doctor in economics and professor at Mackenzie Hugo Garbe University, the result is positive, signaling that Brazilian inflation is yielding to interest rates. “But it’s important to be aware, because according to the FGV there was an increase in inflation in some expense groups”, he points out.

The advance in inflation was due to the groups Education, Reading and Recreation (-1.90% to -1.41%), Food (0.15% to 0.30%), Clothing (0.11% to 0. 34%) and Miscellaneous Expenses (0.16% to 0.17%).

In these expense categories, it is worth mentioning the following items: airfare (-9.75% to -7.93%), vegetables (-1.83% to -0.79%), women’s clothing (0.06% to 0.67%) and postal tariff (0.18% to 0.62%).

Image: FGV Ibre

Economist and researcher at the State University of Campinas (Unicamp) Felipe Queiroz argues that it is still possible to reduce the basic interest rate without affecting the inflation trend. According to him, many of the indicators are associated with external factors. “Our gasoline is still on par with the international market. The electricity tariff depends on the rain, how are the water reservoirs, the plants, which matrix, the component”, he points out.

He reports that these factors corroborate the understanding that inflation in Brazil is associated with cost and supply, not demand.

Projection for the coming months

For Felipe, it is possible that the Brazilian economy will have negative impacts in the coming months. This is because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced that it will reduce oil supply, with an initial cut of 1 million barrels per day, from May until the end of the year. “This has a direct effect on the price of gasoline in the domestic market”, he warns.

The domestic market, referring to foodstuffs, depends on factors such as rain, harvest and price on the international market. “All these elements help to understand how inflation is going in the country and are variables that we must always be aware of”, he explains.

The next calculation of the IPC-S, related to the second quadrissemana of April, will be published on April 17th.