Inflation expectations fall for the seventh consecutive week

The IPCA is considered the official index that measures Brazilian inflation. This is the seventh fall in a row of inflation expectations.

For 2023, the inflation target, defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), is 3.25%, with a tolerance interval of 1.5 percentage points (pp), up or down. Therefore, the inflation expectation still remains above the target.

In relation to GDP, there is an increase in the projection for the 8th consecutive week, at 2.19%. The increase occurs in view of the release of the Gross Domestic Product result for the first quarter of 2023, up 1.9%.

The projection for the dollar has remained stable since last week, mainly due to the improvement in the country risk assessment, released by S&P. The currency is quoted at R$ 5.00.

The projection of the economy’s basic interest rate, the Selic, fell to 12% for 2023. For 2024, the projection is 9.50%. As for 2025, 9%.

The IGP-M, the main rent adjustment index in the country, is down by 2.50%, and represents deflation, in a sequence of weekly declines since the beginning of April 2023. Likewise, the IPCA Administrados , which represents services and products with readjustments defined by contracts or regulated by the public sector, fell for the 9th consecutive week and is at the level of 8.97%.

According to the Central Bank, the information summarizes the calculated statistics, and takes into account market expectations collected up to the Friday prior to its release. Data is released every Monday. The report brings the graphic evolution and the weekly behavior of the projections for price indices, economic activity, exchange rate, Selic rate, among other indicators. “The projections are from the market, not from the Central Bank.”