IPCA-15: preview of inflation was 0.69% in March, points out IBGE

The IPCA-15 slowed down compared to February (0.76%) and the indicator accumulated in 12 months fell from 5.63% to 5.36%. In March 2022, the index was 0.95%.

According to Benito Salomão, master and doctoral student in economics, the slowdown was good, but Brazilian inflation is still acute. “This is positive, but still a little above what was expected and showing the extremely resilient character of our inflation”, he points out.

According to the IBGE, of the nine groups of products and services surveyed, eight were discharged in March. The exception was household articles, with a drop of 0.18% compared to the previous month.

The biggest impact came from the transport group, up 1.5%. The high was driven by the 5.76% increase in gasoline prices, after the resumption of federal tax collection. This sub-item contributed with the greatest individual impact on the March IPCA-15 (0.26 percentage points). There was also an increase in the values ​​of ethanol (1.96%), which had fallen by 1.65% in February.

In the housing group, the highlight was residential electricity: with an increase of 2.85%, it contributed with 0.11 percentage points of inflation for the month. This happened due to the resumption of charging the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Provision of Services (ICMS) on transmission (TUST) and distribution (TUSD) tariffs.

See below the variation of the index:

For Hugo Garbe, doctor in economics and professor at Mackenzie University, the IPCA-15 remains high in the first three months of the year due to the inflation scenario. “The Central Bank has maintained basic interest rates at 13.75% per year, precisely because of fears of inflationary pressure”, he informs.

Garbe explains that the increase in taxes was one of the factors that impacted the inflation process. “That is, both the increase in taxes and the economic scenario, not only nationally but internationally, have contributed to maintaining interest rates in Brazil”.

Projection for the coming months

Salomão points out that inflation has given work to monetary policy, especially in the scenario of readjustment of fuel taxes. “This should continue ‘weighing’ for a few months. Therefore, there is no prospect of easing monetary policy in the short term. We have to wait for this shock to dissipate.”