IPCA-15 records an increase of 0.44% in May, points out IBGE

In the year, the IPCA-15 accumulated an increase of 2.12% and, in 12 months, of 3.70%, below the 3.77% observed in the previous 12 months. In May 2023, the rate was 0.51%.

For economist and lawyer Alessandro Azzoni, Bachelor of Economic Sciences from Faculdade Metropolitanas Unidas (FMU), the increase in the IPCA rate could have an impact, including on the Selic rate.

“If we have an impact directly through the IPCA we could have a reduction in the Selic rate that could be stationary. Remembering that this last discussion where the Selic rate was lowered by 0.25% has already been discussed; there was a discussion within the Copom about this bias, So if we see an increase in the IPCA, as the IPCA-15 previews, we may have a maintenance of the Selic rate at a next Copom meeting so as not to have a reduction”, he explains.

According to the survey results, eight of the nine groups of products and services surveyed had positive results in May, with the biggest variations being in the Health and personal care sectors, with 1.07% and 0.14 pp, and Transport, with 0.77% and 0.16 pp The other variations were between -0.44%, in the Household articles sectors and 0.66% in the Clothing sectors.

For Newton Marques, economist, master and doctor member of Corecon-DF, the increase recorded in the IPCA-15 is due to pressure from the Health and Transport group, which together represent almost 0.4%.

“So, we can say that this pressure is not due to excess demand, it is prices that are readjusted according to rising costs. So if there is a currency devaluation, for example, this causes pressure on the Transport group and the Health group”, he points out.

Scenario by regions

Regarding regional indices, all eleven locations analyzed in the survey registered an increase in the month of May, with the biggest variation being recorded in Salvador, with 0.87%, due to the rise in gasoline prices, reaching 6.89%, and residential electricity, at 3.26%.

The lowest result occurred in Rio de Janeiro, with 0.15%, which saw a drop in the prices of black beans, -10.38%, and meat, with -1.56%.

To calculate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from April 16 to May 15, 2024, and compared with those in force from March 15 to April 15, 2024.

The indicator refers to families with an income of 1 to 40 minimum wages and covers the metropolitan regions of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, in addition to Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia.

The methodology used is the same as the IPCA, the difference being in the price collection period and geographic coverage.

IPCA-15 collection in Rio Grande do Sul

Due to the public calamity situation in the metropolitan region of Porto Alegre, in Rio Grande do Sul, remote price collection was intensified, with in-person price collection also remaining when possible.

To calculate the IPCA-15, prices were collected from April 16 to May 15, 2024 and compared with those in force from March 15 to April 15, 2024. The appropriate information in the May IPCA-15 was validated based on the methodologies for calculating, criticizing and imputing prices in force in the National Consumer Price Index System (SNIPC).

The next release of the IPCA-15, for next month, will be on June 26th.