Ipea revises agro GDP growth for 2023 from 11.6% to 13.2%

Researchers from the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) revised the growth estimate for the agricultural sector in 2023 from 11.6% to 13.2%. The result released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) is the upward revision of the production of cattle and crops with a significant weight in the added value of the crop, such as soy

According to data from the IBGE’s Quarterly National Accounts System, the agricultural sector grew 18.8% in the first quarter of this year. The Ipea forecast, made in March, was for year-on-year growth of 13% also in the same period.

This difference is justified, among other items, by the positive revision of estimates for soybean production, whose growth forecast was revised from 21.3% to an increase of 24%, according to the most recent Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production by IBGE.

Beef production also presented a result above the previously forecast by Ipea, with an increase of 3% in relation to the same quarter of the previous year.

Other highlights are the review in production estimates for sugarcane and corn, which grew from 1.3% and 10.2% to 6.6% and 11.5%, respectively. In livestock, cattle production gained prominence and the annual estimate for the segment was revised from 2.6% to 3.3%.

According to Ipea, the expectation of growth in coffee and cotton production should also contribute to the agricultural sector maintaining high interannual growth rates in the second and third quarters of this year.

Ipea researcher José Ronaldo Souza Júnior and associate researcher Pedro Garcia made the new projections based on new estimates from the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production and the Quarterly Surveys on Slaughter, Milk and Chicken Eggs by IBGE.