National retail should earn BRL 2.49 billion at Easter, projects CNC

Brazilian retail trade is expected to sell BRL 2.49 billion for Easter this year, an increase of 2.8% compared to the same period in 2022, already discounted for inflation. The result will, however, be 2.7% below that recorded in 2019, which reached BRL 2.56 billion. The estimate is from the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC). Easter represents the sixth most relevant commemorative date on the retail calendar.

“This commemorative date should fall short of the sales level of 2019. And, basically, there are two reasons for this”, he said, this Wednesday (29), to Brazil Agency CNC economist Fabio Bentes.

The first reason is the behavior of prices, with the rise in inflation. “Food prices have risen sharply and specific Easter items should see an 8% increase. If this readjustment is confirmed, it will be the highest increase since 2016”, he informed. That year, the prices of the basket of Easter products expanded by 10.3%.

The second factor for the sector’s revenue to be lower than that of 2019 is that Easter is not a commemorative date with as great appeal as Christmas, Mother’s Day and Black Friday, said Bentes. Also, the consumer should be a little more cautious.

“The date is part of the context of economic recovery, but it is unable to reach pre-pandemic revenues due to price changes in recent months, and, specifically, Easter food prices,” he explained.

By state, high sales are expected in Santa Catarina (7.9%), Ceará (7%) and Espírito Santo (6.8%). The largest sales volumes should be concentrated in São Paulo (R$ 977.02 million), Minas Gerais (R$ 273.11 million) and Rio de Janeiro (R$ 243.99 million), which together will account for 60 % of financial volume generated for the date.

Import

Another indicator that retailers are betting on a moderate Easter this year is that chocolate imports, although they grew 6.5% compared to 2022, totaling 2.76 thousand tons, were unable to match purchases in 2020, which totaled three thousand tons.

In relation to another typical product of the time – cod -, the CNC recorded a 32.7% drop in the quantity imported before Easter last year, totaling 3.69 tons against 5.48 tons in 2022.

The numbers were tabulated by the entity according to records of the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex). With regard to cod, whose kilo is much more expensive than that of chocolates, retailers realized that the consumer does not have a very full pocket and, therefore, did not invest much in importing the product.

“It was the smallest cod import since 2020, which was the first atypical Easter for the trade. This movement of retail imports is a reading that commerce makes of the consumption intention of families. At this point, there is no room for spending too much outside the budget. Interest rates are high. The economy is not growing as much. Although it closed last year with a growth of almost 3%, one can see a slowdown in the economy and the retail sector did not want to run aground with this product with a large import of cod”, highlighted Bentes.

The road

The basket of goods and services for Easter, made up of eight items, reveals that virtually all products will be more expensive. On average, the increase will be 8.1%, surpassing the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA-15) of 5.5%. Cakes and chocolates have an upward trend of 15.9% and 13.9% compared to 2022.

Consumption in Rio

In Rio de Janeiro, 65% of retailers estimate an increase of 2.5% in sales for Easter, while 27% estimate growth of 4% and 8%. The date is considered a Christmas for stores specialized in chocolate and started to have a new flavor for retailers, not restricted to chocolate eggs and boxes of chocolates. This is what shows research by the Club of Directors Shopkeepers of Rio de Janeiro (CDLRio) and the Trade Shopkeepers Union of the Municipality of Rio de Janeiro (SindilojasRio), which heard 350 shopkeepers in the city.

The survey also indicates that 20% of shopkeepers hired temporary workers for Easter. Of these, 10% stated that they intend to hire after the commemorative date, but this depends on the behavior of sales.

A study by the Fecomércio Institute of Research and Analysis (IFec RJ) – carried out on the 17th, 20th and 21st of this month with 800 consumers in Rio – reveals that 69.5% of respondents intend to give gifts at Easter, 27.5% should not buy anything and 3% still haven’t decided.

According to the survey, the financial transfer to the city of Rio is estimated at R$ 408 million, with an average expenditure of R$ 106 on the purchase of gifts. The Easter egg ranks first among the options for consumers who want to give it as a gift, with 59.6%, followed by bonbon (37.8%) and chocolate bar (24.1%).

Of those interviewed, 86.9% said they intend to buy gifts in physical stores, 7.9% in virtual stores and 4.5% in both. Consumers who do not wish to give gifts this Easter pointed out, among the main reasons for this, the fact of not having anyone to give gifts to, not having the habit of celebrating Easter and lack of money.