Optimism of industrialists is a reflection of a more positive scenario, says economist

According to the Industrial Survey published this Tuesday (18), businessmen believe that domestic demand should increase in the coming months, as well as the amount of industrial goods that factories will export, the purchase of raw materials and also the number of employees.

According to the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), this shows that there is more widespread optimism among industries, despite the negative results recorded from May to June. Carla Beni points out that the improvement in business confidence is due to several factors.

“There is a very positive scenario in Brazil. There is the tax reform, which will make life much easier for the industry. The other relevant expectation for the second half is the beginning of a cycle of falling interest rates. Another important program is Desenrola, which will resume a very considerable number of people who will return to the consumer market. The dollar is at a very good level, GDP growth expectations are close to 3%”, he evaluates.

The economist points out that these factors will allow for an increase in domestic consumption, which was the main problem faced by the industry in the second quarter, according to the businessmen themselves.

Another difficulty that tends to be overcome in the second half is the high interest rate, says federal deputy Arnaldo Jardim (Cidadania-SP). “With the decrease in inflationary expectations, there is no reason to maintain the interest rate level, which is why I think the issue of interest rates will be decisive and, once it is considered, we will be able to have a quick response, which is important for the recovery of the economy, particularly the country’s industrial activity”, he analyzes.

The congressman, who is president of the Parliamentary Front for Competitive Brazil, says that the country’s economic growth depends on legal security and fiscal balance, which he believes can be improved with the new fiscal framework, the legal framework for credit guarantees and the bill for infrastructure debentures, for example. “They can make the climate receptive to business development”, he points out.

All industry expectations indices rise in July, points out CNI

Negative performance in June

From May to June, the industry saw production, employment and inventory indicators worsen. Despite this, businessmen noticed a slight improvement in financial conditions, access to credit and the price of raw materials, a point that was one of the main bottlenecks for the industry in the last year.