Retail sales grow 3.8% in January, record for the month

Retail trade sales in the country grew 3.8% from December to January, the highest change for the month since the beginning of the historical series in 2000. In relation to January 2022, the increase was 2.6%, the sixth consecutive positive in this type of comparison. In the indicator accumulated in the last 12 months, the high was 1.3%.

The data are from the Monthly Survey of Commerce (PMC), released this Wednesday (12) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This is the first release of the new survey series, which underwent updates in the selection of the sample of companies, adjustments in the weights of products and activities, in addition to methodological changes, to portray economic changes in society.

The increase presented in January is also the largest for any month since July 2021, when there was an increase of 3.9%. According to the manager of the survey, Cristiano Santos, each month has its specificity in the sector, but he pointed out that since September (1.1%) the volume of retail sales had not registered an increase.

“It is an important result, because trade was coming from negative results or stability,” he said in a note.

The increase of the month was disseminated among the surveyed activities, since seven of the eight had growth in January. Emphasis on the sector of fabrics, clothing and footwear, which increased 27.9% after four months of decline.

Another group that influenced the result of national retail was hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco, with an increase of 2.3% after two months of decrease in sales volume.

“Both sectors signal a recovery in January. From the December result, it is possible to consider that movements such as Black Friday and Christmas were not positive for both activities. With the previous drops and the lower base of comparison, there was an important growth in January, mainly motivated by post-Christmas initiatives”, said Santos.

The only sector that recorded a drop in sales in January was pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (-1.2%), which had already started losing in December (-0.5%). “This movement was greatly influenced by cosmetics and perfumery, which continue to fall and have more sensitive variations, since medical and pharmaceutical articles tend to have a more stable trajectory”, stated the researcher.

Expanded retail varies by 0.2%

The PMC also investigates the sales volume of the expanded retail trade, which had a variation of 0.2% in relation to December 2022 and 0.5% against January 2022. This index, in addition to the eight surveyed activities, also includes the sectors of vehicles, motorcycles, parts and accessories; construction material and, the debuting wholesale group specializing in food, beverages and tobacco, included after the updates and changes announced by the IBGE in March.

With the January result, expanded retail trade reverses the downward trend recorded in the last two months (-1.4% in November and -0.6% in December 2022). The January index means that national retail is 3.3% above the pre-covid-19 pandemic level (February 2020).

“Although above, this index is not high, considering that it’s been almost three years. And commerce still has more activities below the pre-pandemic level. In all, there are six, as is the case of expanded retail, whose sales volume it is 1.3% lower than in February 2020”, he said.

Comparing January 2023 with January 2022, the 2.6% increase in sales volume includes six of the eight surveyed activities, with emphasis on fuels and lubricants (26.7%), Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery ( 15.2%) and Office, computer and communication equipment and supplies (14.8%).

Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles (-7.6%) and other articles for personal and domestic use (-6.5%) had a negative rate in the interannual comparison. In expanded retail trade, vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces grew by 4.4% while construction material increased by 1.1%. The wholesale of food products, beverages and tobacco fell by 0.9%.