Search for credit drops 3.5% in the semester, points out Serasa Experian

The search for credit by companies in the first half of this year fell by 3.5% compared to the same period last year, points out a survey by the consulting company Serasa Experian. It is the first time that the Business Demand Indicator for Credit has retracted in the first six months of the year since 2020, the initial months of the covid-19 pandemic.

For Luiz Rabi, economist at Serasa Experian, the current basic interest rate of 13.75% per year, defined by the Central Bank, makes the conditions for obtaining credit not attractive for entrepreneurs. This leads businessmen to “postpone, for the time being, the search for financial resources”. He assesses that “as the improvement in the economy becomes more evident and interest rates begin to decrease, it will be possible to see a recovery in the indicator”.

The interest rate is at its highest level since January 2017, when it was also at that level. The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) is scheduled for the beginning of August. For the financial market, the expectation is that there will be a decrease in the rate.

by sector

The category that includes finance, primary sector and third sector recorded the highest growth in the search for credit, with a rise of 10.3%. Next is the trade sector, up 0.8% in the last six months. The industry, in turn, had a drop of 2%. The service sector had a significant drop of 7.2% in the indicator.

The breakdown by size of companies showed that large and medium-sized companies increased in searches for credit demand, with 15.7% and 3.3%, respectively. Small businesses, on the other hand, registered a negative percentage of 3.8% compared to the first six months of 2022.

In the analysis by state, Mato Grosso had the highest increase in the search for credit, with 7.4%, followed by Santa Catarina (6.3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (6%) and Tocantins (4.2%), and the Federal District (5.5%). At the other end is Rio de Janeiro, with a retraction of 13.1%, Amapá (11.9%), Alagoas (11.7%), Minas Gerais (8.9%) and Sergipe (7.7%), the states with the greatest falls.

Methodology

The Serasa Experian Indicator of Business Demand for Credit is calculated based on a sample of around 1.2 million CNPJ’s consulted monthly in the consulting firm’s database. Transactions that form a credit relationship between companies and financial system institutions are considered.