Services Confidence Index fell 0.6 points in May, points out FGV IBRE

The Services Confidence Index (ICS), released this Wednesday (29) by FGV IBRE, fell 0.6 points in May, reaching 94.2, its second consecutive drop. Last month, the fall in the ICS reflected worsening expectations for the coming months.

According to Stéfano Pacini, specialist economist at FGV IBRE, the current moment is not the worst, as businesspeople have understood that the business situation is better than they could have imagined, despite there being a lot of caution regarding the future.

“We saw that the improvement in the current situation was spread across the main sectors, mainly services provided to families, and on the other hand, in the future there will be a moment of caution for all sectors, with a worsening in the expectations index, which is composed based on a demand forecast and also on another indicator, which is the entrepreneur’s perception of his business in six months’ time”, he explains.

According to the quarterly moving averages highlighted in the report, the index remained stable. The Expectations Index (IE-S) fell 3.1 points, reaching 91.3 percentage points. In turn, the Current Situation Index (ISAS) advanced 1.9 points, reaching 97.3 percentage points.

The two indicators that make up the ISA-S also advanced: the current demand volume rose 2.3 points, reaching 97.7 points, and the current business situation improved 1.6 points, reaching 96.9 points.

According to the survey released, in the context of expectations, the decline in the IE-S was the result of the worsening of both indicators that comprise it: the demand forecast for the next three months, which fell 2.9 points, reaching 91.6 percentage points; and the business trend over the next six months, which fell 3.4 points, hitting 91.1 percentage points — the lowest level since December 2023.