Trade balance should have a record surplus of US$ 86.472 billion
According to the chief executive of the AEB, José Augusto de Castro, imports are expected to fall more than exports and a record surplus of US$ 86.472 billion will be generated in 2023, with an increase of 40.5% compared to the US$ 61.526 billion recorded in 2022. However, this will be a negative surplus, “because it will be generated by negative factors and not by positive factors. And it does not generate economic activity or jobs,” explained Castro, to Brazil Agency.
As a result of the drop in exports and imports, the trade flow, projected at US$ 561.402 billion for 2023, will show a drop of 7.5% compared to the US$ 606.746 billion calculated in the previous year.
The previous AEB forecast for the year 2023, released on December 20 of last year, signaled Brazilian exports of US$ 325.162 billion, imports of US$ 253.229 billion and a surplus of US$ 71.933 billion.
The chief executive of AEB attributed the estimated drop in exports in 2023 basically to the question of price in the international market. “Because prices, this year, are gradually decreasing. In imports, there was a very strong growth in 2022 and, now, prices are adjusting to the new reality, because the internal growth did not justify that strong increase in imports”. The Russia/Ukraine war also caused price increases for a series of products and, now, these prices are being updated. Fertilizer prices, for example, rose very little after the war and are returning to normality, Castro said.
Commodities
Exports from Brazil will continue to be based on commodities (agricultural and mineral products sold abroad). Of the 15 main export products from Brazil, 14 are commodities. The exception is vehicles.
Castro says he believes, on the other hand, that the dream of the country exporting more value-added products could become a reality with the tax reform. “But until it is approved, implemented, it is not an immediate thing. Until that happens, we will continue exporting commodities like these”. The crisis in Argentina will also reduce national exports of manufactured goods, since the Argentine market is our main importer of vehicles. Therefore, Castro indicated that the tendency is for there to be more concentration of commodities and less participation of manufactured goods in our exports.
Soybeans in grain should maintain the leadership of Brazilian exports, surpassing, for the first time, the house of US$ 50 billion, thanks to the record harvest harvested and despite the drop of 12.7% in quotations. Also in terms of volume, the AEB projects that soybean exports should reach, in 2023, a record 98 million tons, up 24% compared to the 79 million tons exported in 2022.
Regarding imports, the CEO of AEB explains that 90% of what Brazil buys from other countries are manufactured products. “We don’t care commodities, other than coal. He assesses that if there is industrial growth in Brazil, the tendency is for imports to increase. In the event of an industrial slump, imports will fall. “What we are seeing today is that the industry, little by little, is losing share in GDP (goods and services produced in the country) Brazilian. The more it loses participation, it means less imports”, explained the president of AEB.
The entity also estimates that despite the decline in exports and imports, Brazilian foreign trade will contribute positively to the calculation of this year’s GDP. The data projected by the AEB indicate that Brazil should remain in the current 26th position in the world ranking of exports and, also, of imports.
Covid-19
The review carried out by the AEB also considers that despite having cooled its negative effects, the covid-19 pandemic continues to directly impact the economy and world trade and, in particular, its levels of development, jobs and investment.
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